> The whole dialogue can be summarized as "someone bet me he will still be in power a year from now".
The differing analysis was actually more interesting to me than the wager - his was that Mubarak is resilient, ruthless, has weathered things in the past, and has the military.
My thinking was that things had already progressed beyond the point where he could possibly stay in power... and the military is not so clearly on his side against the people, especially considering he likely won't live much longer.
I thought comparing the two points of view was more interesting than the bet itself.
Sorry, but your friend lived under a rock and had no clue how the events on the ground were unfolding. I would make it a habit to bet the guy from now on.
Mubarak was destined to leave if for one reason: the opposition refused to bite the various baits thrown at them. They refused to get violent, they refused to split into factions, and they refused to disclose any unified position that he could negotiate with, other than "get out".
> Mubarak was destined to leave if for one reason: the opposition refused to bite the various baits thrown at them.
Huh, that's a fascinating analysis, especially the point about refusing to give a position to negotiate with.
Also, I laughed about the betting point.
Sidenote: I live on the road, and my next travel plans after Asia were going to be Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, and Greece... I'm thinking those don't look as appealing as when I set them in late 2009...
Morocco was great; was there touristing it up late last year. Helps to speak French, though. If you do go to Morocco, check out Essaouira on the coast for sure, and maybe try to spend a couple days in Marrakesh to check out the old market area. It is a completely corrupt totalitarian regime, along with former Egypt, though it does seem they keep the visible brutality to a minimum, and I had no problems there. A contagion of unrest spread from Egypt to Morocco would not be completely out of the question, however.
Turkey and Greece should be no problem, they're both quite stable this month... : P
Might I suggest southern Spain, near Grenada and Sevilla? It's a short boat ride from Morocco's northern coastal cities, and truly a wonderful area to visit, with some beautiful arab-influenced architecture surviving from when the Moors ran the place. They serve good tapas in Grenada, often free with your drink order!
Start on the south coast in the east, make your way across Antalya, go up to Urfa, where everything is between 2000 and 17,000 years old. Go to Lake Van and Mount Nimrut, watch out for the heads. Do Capadocia (fairy chimneys) and look out for the old christian hideout caves where it was first preached and used to hide from the romans. Head across to Ankara to see the Ataturk mauseleum then down to Konya. Onwards to Bodrum, up through Ephesus, Troy and get the boat from Bursa to Istanbul. Spend a few days in Istanbul and take the train or bus to Thessaloniki.
From Thessaloniki go to Volos then on to Athens. From Port Piraeus you can go on to Crete after which you can head back to Athens then on to Patra to try some wine. From Patra get a ferry to Ancona in Italy.
From Ancona go on to Rome, then up to Florence. Don't forget the galleries. From there on to Milan and Turin. Here you can go on to Cannes, Monaco (if you fancy but it is expensive) and Nice. From Nice head west to Cerbere to connect on to Barcelona.
After some time in Barcelona, head to Madrid and if you fancy it on to the Douro valley in Portugal, then Lisbon and over towards Cadiz. If you don't fancy Portugal and want to save it for when you're back from Morocco then you can go from Madrid down to Cadiz via Seville. If you time this right you should get there for the Fiesta de Savilla. Go on to Cordoba and do some Flamenco then on to Tarifa to get the ferry to Tangiers.
From Tangiers take the train to Rabat - if you go overnight get a Couchette, then on to Casablanca (although there's not a great deal there). You can go on to Marrakech from there. Try to stay in the Medina if you can, the Riyads aren't that expensive and are worth it. From there you can head to Fez or the Atlas mountains - there's some waterfalls near Marrakech that are also worth a visit. Then you can head up to Tangiers or down towards West Africa. I'd suggest back up to Tangiers, then do Lisbon, Douro and northern Spain. When you get back to France you should be able to go from there up the west coast through the north and either get a Eurostar or Ferry to the UK (at which point drop me an email and I'll buy you a beer) or you can keep going north and east to Belgium, Holland and beyond.
If you're going to ever end up in Istanbul, drop me a line through e-mail (the link on my profile has it) and I'll gladly buy you a beer and take you around! :)
Turkey and Greece should be no biggie, both are pretty darn stable.
Three to four days ago was very near the low point (besides the night they fought the mobs). There weren't many people and I kind of feared it would fizz out too because it wasn't clear if most Egyptians bought the propaganda. But then there was the Ghonim interview and Tuesday there was no more doubt.
The differing analysis was actually more interesting to me than the wager - his was that Mubarak is resilient, ruthless, has weathered things in the past, and has the military.
My thinking was that things had already progressed beyond the point where he could possibly stay in power... and the military is not so clearly on his side against the people, especially considering he likely won't live much longer.
I thought comparing the two points of view was more interesting than the bet itself.