The problem is that these are all jobs that require a few years of training, which the US system isn't very well set up for.
Automation is also making the skill/demand curve look more step-like I believe, where your value stays near zero up until you cross the "better than a machine could do" threshold, instead of scaling in some more smooth way. That makes it harder to get training on the job by just taking low-end jobs and moving up.
From what I've read about welding (e.g. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/24/business/24jobs.html?pagew...), highly skilled, experienced welders are very much in demand. But, since low-end welds can be done by machines nowadays, there's much less demand for a welder with <10 yrs experience than there used to be. Consequently, there's no obvious path to get that first 10 years of experience.
I own a company that does quite a bit of welding, both manually and with a robot. Your comment "since low-end welds can be done by machines nowadays, there's much less demand for a welder with <10 yrs experience than there used to be" is slightly off the mark, but not far.
Our robot needs the skills of an experienced welder in order to set it up. It is extremely difficult to get it set up correctly if you don't know how to weld, set the wire feed, set the amperage, etc. Personally, I can't weld very well, nor am I good at setting up the robot. I rely heavily on my lead welder to get the settings right for the robot, and once it is setup properly (which can be a few hours or a few days, depending on complexity) only then can a less experienced non-welder type worker run the machine. SO my lead welder does the jig design, figures out torch angles and then an outside contractor comes in and does the programming (Windows CE, on a Panasonic arm). Since we manufacture many of the same parts day to day, we only need the contractor once a month or so. Jigs are designed for quick change, with pins to set them exactly in place.
The robot is excellent at complex work, as well as "low end welds". Without a skilled and experienced welder for the setups, it is just a useless hunk of metal. You are correct if you think that a lower skilled worker can operate it on a daily basis however. The operator does not have to know how to weld at all (just how to push the emergency stop button and yell for help). The NY Times article is speaking about welders that doing some of the most difficult welds of all, and finding a person with those skills is about as rare as finding a really awesome iOS developer who is out of work. The people who can do that sort of welding are few and far between, since it has to be flawless.
That's an interesting point, and one that further suggests that we're better off shifting to more services and less manufacturing for the low-end stuff.
Eventually automation might replace the bottom level of nurses and plumbers, (more so nurses than plumbers), but it will take _much_ longer.
I have some family/friends who are in that 'only high school diploma, no credentials/money/drive to go to a non-community college' trap, and one big barrier is that the training programs for Nursing Aides, Auto Tech, and even office/clerical have 1 year+ wait times. Even though they _want_ to gain these skills, they need to support themselves until they get into the program, and while they're working through it.
Even though there's great demand for the skills, and workers who want to gain them, the training pipeline just hasn't expanded yet.
I've long wondered why we're not investing more in skilled labor/vocational training as a country - any idea what the bottleneck is there? A lack of qualified instructors? Specifically, I think it'd be great if the govt. made training a valid alternative to "looking for a job" as a requirement for continued welfare/unemployment (might already be the case, but I've not heard of that being so).
Automation is also making the skill/demand curve look more step-like I believe, where your value stays near zero up until you cross the "better than a machine could do" threshold, instead of scaling in some more smooth way. That makes it harder to get training on the job by just taking low-end jobs and moving up.
From what I've read about welding (e.g. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/24/business/24jobs.html?pagew...), highly skilled, experienced welders are very much in demand. But, since low-end welds can be done by machines nowadays, there's much less demand for a welder with <10 yrs experience than there used to be. Consequently, there's no obvious path to get that first 10 years of experience.