> The True Believers hypothesis rings false because that would be a frankly ridiculous belief to hold. Sometimes people profess ridiculous things, but very few of them put their money where their mouth is on prediction markets.

It sounds like the author is saying the belief is ridiculous in general. However, if Jesus returns, then the believers would ascend to heaven. So, they would not be able to cash out.

What if polymarket put in the money to drive people to vote on the no side? It could be quite a marketing stunt.