And I think this is the actual problem with Bitcoin, the community is small and few people are owners of Bitcoins.
How many people sold all their Bitcoins in the wake of that crash? It is indeed unsurprising to me too that Bitcoin recovered after a crash, because the owners of Bitcoin believe in it and so the market kept being rational post-crash.
The real test of Bitcoin has yet to happen, when Bitcoin will be popular enough that regular folks will put their life savings into it.
That test is unlikely to happen. regular folks do not put their life savings into currencies or commodities. They put their life savings into banks. A saving account in a bank does not contain a heap of cash or gold nuggets. Instead its an trust relationship between the bank and the bank customer, like a contract.
I would guess that in "the future", the name of currencies will become less likely to end up in the mindset of the general public. All they know is that a specific thing (a computer, a car, and so on) will cost X amount of what they have in the bank.
That test is unlikely to happen. regular folks do not put their life savings into currencies or commodities. They put their life savings into banks.
And your savings account is denominated in ...?
(hint1: USD EUR JPY CAD AUD)
(hint2: The 'stuff' people exchange for goods and services)
(hint3: Currencies!)
You're right about commodities, though. Unless you are deliberately taking positions in commodity ETFs or futures contracts (something that a person is unlikely to be doing without knowing it), you are probably not taking on commodity exposure.
Regular folks do not put their life savings into currencies or commodities. They put their life savings into banks.
What planet are you from? On my planet, regular folks put their savings into 401k accounts, which invest in stocks, bonds, and sometimes commodities. If you do choose to keep your savings in a bank, you're investing in a currency (probably the US dollar.)
Instead its an trust relationship between the bank and the bank customer, like a contract.
Nope. Actually it's a trust relationship between the federal government, which insures your account up to 250,000 through FDIC, and you. You also have to trust that the federal government isn't going to inflate away your savings (spoiler alert: they are going to.)
I guess it depend on where on the planet one is (or maybe its on the not-the-usa-planet). I am not sure banks where I live even have anything called 401k plans. They do have stocks and bonds, but its not something commonly talked about. pension savings are done mostly through tax but in rare occasions, addition money is added by the place you work from. In very extreme rare occasions, people sometimes add personal savings to it.
I've been trying to buy bitcoins for a month via dwolla and mtgox, still haven't been able to make the purchase. I don't know how "regular folks" are supposed to get in.
How many people sold all their Bitcoins in the wake of that crash? It is indeed unsurprising to me too that Bitcoin recovered after a crash, because the owners of Bitcoin believe in it and so the market kept being rational post-crash.
The real test of Bitcoin has yet to happen, when Bitcoin will be popular enough that regular folks will put their life savings into it.