Clearly a wager is the way to solve this problem (Bayesian interpretation of probability). Is it legal to gamble on an election result? They could use the following payouts - J represents a regular journalist using 50/50 odds, N represents Nate Silver using 75/25 Obama/Romney:
Romney win:
J: +1000
N: -1000
Obama win:
J: -600
N: +600
With those payouts each side has an expected value of +200 dollars for this wager, using the specified odds they believe to be true, so both should be willing to take it.
Romney win:
J: +1000
N: -1000
Obama win:
J: -600
N: +600
With those payouts each side has an expected value of +200 dollars for this wager, using the specified odds they believe to be true, so both should be willing to take it.